The financial soothsayers see shifting signs
April 29th, 2009There has been a blow to those who claimed to see the ‘green shoots of recovery’ in the housing market. Mortgage lending by the UK’s major banks fell for the first time in four months in March.
The number of mortgages approved for house purchases fell to 26,097 in March, down 6.8% from February and 25% lower than a year earlier.
The British Bankers’ Association, which produced the figures, said it expected fluctuations during a recession. Similarly, savers were reluctant to make more deposits with interest rates so low.
All measures of mortgage lending were slightly weaker in March than in February, with the £8.9bn of gross mortgage lending at its lowest level since April 2001. This was also down 47% on March 2008.
At the moment, consumer confidence is extremely fragile and unlikely to change demand markedly in the near-term. The banks’ figures also show it would be unrealistic to expect the mortgage market to recover steadily in the current economic environment.
However, the general trend is still upwards, and banks are continuing to lend. But there will be monthly fluctuations in housing market statistics given the economic climate.
The simple fact is that people are reluctant to buy a home with property prices still falling and unemployment rising.
Some recent figures and surveys have been read as positive signs for the market. However, many analysts suggest that the mortgage market may have reached the bottom and is now likely to stay there for a while.
Falling house prices and the demand for high deposits from first-time buyers mean that activity is low.
Many existing borrowers are also taking advantage of low interest rates and are reverting to the standard variable rate (SVR) when their fixed-rate term comes to an end, rather than remortgaging.
Despite this gloom, mortgage brokers are suggesting that this is still a good time to study the market. The time is ripe for people to start looking for property again to take advantage of low house prices and mortgage rates.
It remains true, however, that unless you have a substantial deposit this is still very difficult.



