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Lies, damn lies and statistics

June 12th, 2008

The
UK mortgage market remains in a severely depressed state, according to statistics released by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) today.
 

Gross lending increased by eight per cent in April, to £26.1 billion, after two consecutive months of decline - down five per cent from April 2007. 

However, this annual rate of decline was lower than in recent months; gross lending in March 2008 was 24 per cent lower than March 2007 – suggesting a slight return in confidence. 

Remortgaging has continued to grow as a percentage of the market, accounting for 42 per cent of the market in April. This is up from 38 per cent in April 2007. In total there were 83,000 loans for remortgage worth £11 billion during April, up 14 per cent in volume and 11 per cent in value from March. 

Correspondingly, loans for home purchases have continued to decline.  There were 50,700 loans for house purchase, worth £7.7 billion in April, up nine per cent in volume and ten per cent in value from March. However, loans for home purchase now account for just 30 per cent of the market, down from 44 per cent a year ago. 

There were also 18,500 loans to first-time buyers, up four per cent from March but 36 per cent lower than April last year. 

Finally, fixed-rate lending appears to be experiencing a resurgence. The proportion of borrowers taking out fixed-rate products increased to 59 per cent in April, from 54 per cent in March. This is the largest proportion since December last year, but still well below the record of 77 per cent recorded last summer.

100% mortgages prove risky as prices fall

June 12th, 2008

More than 23,000 homeowners may be stuck with houses worth less than their mortgage debt after taking advantage of 100 per cent home loans. As house prices continue to plummet thousands more Britons are at risk of negative equity. 

Borrowers who have not made significant overpayments on their 100 per cent home loan are therefore likely to be in negative equity and could make a loss on their houses if they choose to move. 

Since last March, house prices have fallen by 5 per cent according to data from Halifax, the
UK’s biggest lender. A 20 per cent decline would plunge 2 million homeowners, or one in six mortgage borrowers, into negative equity.
 

Research suggests that many more homeowners may be facing the threat of negative equity, with 370,000 at risk if prices fall by a total of 5 per cent this year and next. 

Most 100 per cent mortgage deals have been withdrawn from the market in recent months as banks became more circumspect about their lending in the wake of the credit crunch.